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Species distribution models (SDMs) are frequently used to predict the effects of climate change on species of conservation concern. Biases inherent in the process of constructing SDMs and transferring them to new climate scenarios may result in undesirable conservation outcomes. We explore these issues and demonstrate new methods to estimate biases induced by the design of SDM studies. We present these methods in the context of estimating the effects of climate change on Australia\u0027s only endemic Pokémon.\n2. Using a citizen science dataset, we build species distribution models for Garura kangaskhani to predict the effects of climate change on the suitability of habitat for the species. We demonstrate a novel Monte Carlo procedure for estimating the biases implicit in a given study design, and compare the results seen for Pokémon to those seen from our Monte Carlo tests as well as previous studies in the same region using both simulated and real data.\n3. Our models suggest that climate change will impact the suitability of habitat for G. kangaskhani, which may compound the effects of threats such as habitat loss and their use in blood sport. However, we also find that using SDMs to estimate the effects of climate change can be accompanied by biases so strong that the data themselves have minimal impact on modelling outcomes. \n4. We show that the direction and magnitude of bias in estimates of climate change impacts are affected by every aspect of the modelling process, and suggest that bias estimates should be included in future studies of this type. Given the widespread use of SDMs, systemic biases could have substantial financial and opportunity costs. By demonstrating these biases and presenting a novel statistical tool to estimate them, we hope to provide a more secure future for G. kangaskhani and the rest of the world\u0027s biodiversity.", "subitem_description_type": "Other"}]}, "item_10001_publisher_8": {"attribute_name": "Publisher", "attribute_value_mlt": [{"subitem_publisher": "John Wiley \u0026 Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society."}]}, "item_10001_relation_14": {"attribute_name": "DOI", "attribute_value_mlt": [{"subitem_relation_type": "isIdenticalTo", "subitem_relation_type_id": {"subitem_relation_type_id_text": "info:doi/10.1111/2041-210X.13591", "subitem_relation_type_select": "DOI"}}]}, "item_10001_relation_17": {"attribute_name": "Related site", "attribute_value_mlt": [{"subitem_relation_type_id": {"subitem_relation_type_id_text": "https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/2041-210X.13591", "subitem_relation_type_select": "URI"}}]}, "item_10001_rights_15": {"attribute_name": "Rights", "attribute_value_mlt": [{"subitem_rights": "© 2021 The Author(s). 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The effects of climate change on Australia’s only endemic Pokémon: Measuring bias in species distribution models
https://oist.repo.nii.ac.jp/records/2069
https://oist.repo.nii.ac.jp/records/206965a7b261-75c7-408e-ac04-db295b00f68e
名前 / ファイル | ライセンス | アクション |
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Warren-2021-The effects of climate change on A (2.6 MB)
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Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International(https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)
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Item type | 学術雑誌論文 / Journal Article(1) | |||||
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公開日 | 2021-05-14 | |||||
タイトル | ||||||
言語 | en | |||||
タイトル | The effects of climate change on Australia’s only endemic Pokémon: Measuring bias in species distribution models | |||||
言語 | ||||||
言語 | eng | |||||
キーワード | ||||||
言語 | en | |||||
主題Scheme | Other | |||||
主題 | conservation | |||||
キーワード | ||||||
言語 | en | |||||
主題Scheme | Other | |||||
主題 | GIS | |||||
キーワード | ||||||
言語 | en | |||||
主題Scheme | Other | |||||
主題 | modelling | |||||
キーワード | ||||||
言語 | en | |||||
主題Scheme | Other | |||||
主題 | niche models | |||||
キーワード | ||||||
言語 | en | |||||
主題Scheme | Other | |||||
主題 | population ecology | |||||
キーワード | ||||||
言語 | en | |||||
主題Scheme | Other | |||||
主題 | spatial or time-series | |||||
キーワード | ||||||
言語 | en | |||||
主題Scheme | Other | |||||
主題 | species distribution models | |||||
キーワード | ||||||
言語 | en | |||||
主題Scheme | Other | |||||
主題 | statistics | |||||
資源タイプ | ||||||
資源タイプ識別子 | http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 | |||||
資源タイプ | journal article | |||||
著者(英) |
Warren, Dan L.
× Warren, Dan L.× Dornburg, Alex× Zapfe, Katerina× Iglesias, Teresa L. |
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書誌情報 |
en : Methods in Ecology and Evolution 発行日 2021-03-31 |
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抄録 | ||||||
内容記述タイプ | Other | |||||
内容記述 | 1. Species distribution models (SDMs) are frequently used to predict the effects of climate change on species of conservation concern. Biases inherent in the process of constructing SDMs and transferring them to new climate scenarios may result in undesirable conservation outcomes. We explore these issues and demonstrate new methods to estimate biases induced by the design of SDM studies. We present these methods in the context of estimating the effects of climate change on Australia's only endemic Pokémon. 2. Using a citizen science dataset, we build species distribution models for Garura kangaskhani to predict the effects of climate change on the suitability of habitat for the species. We demonstrate a novel Monte Carlo procedure for estimating the biases implicit in a given study design, and compare the results seen for Pokémon to those seen from our Monte Carlo tests as well as previous studies in the same region using both simulated and real data. 3. Our models suggest that climate change will impact the suitability of habitat for G. kangaskhani, which may compound the effects of threats such as habitat loss and their use in blood sport. However, we also find that using SDMs to estimate the effects of climate change can be accompanied by biases so strong that the data themselves have minimal impact on modelling outcomes. 4. We show that the direction and magnitude of bias in estimates of climate change impacts are affected by every aspect of the modelling process, and suggest that bias estimates should be included in future studies of this type. Given the widespread use of SDMs, systemic biases could have substantial financial and opportunity costs. By demonstrating these biases and presenting a novel statistical tool to estimate them, we hope to provide a more secure future for G. kangaskhani and the rest of the world's biodiversity. |
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出版者 | ||||||
出版者 | John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society. | |||||
ISSN | ||||||
収録物識別子タイプ | ISSN | |||||
収録物識別子 | 2041-210X | |||||
DOI | ||||||
関連タイプ | isIdenticalTo | |||||
識別子タイプ | DOI | |||||
関連識別子 | info:doi/10.1111/2041-210X.13591 | |||||
権利 | ||||||
権利情報 | © 2021 The Author(s). | |||||
関連サイト | ||||||
識別子タイプ | URI | |||||
関連識別子 | https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/2041-210X.13591 | |||||
著者版フラグ | ||||||
出版タイプ | VoR | |||||
出版タイプResource | http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85 |